Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict be “transactionally ended” with Trump’s return? Will the US-China tech and tariff war edge toward a Cold War? Could political turmoil in Iran trigger a massive shock in the Middle East? Will retaliatory tariffs plunge global trade into chaos?
These pressing issues that are reshaping the world order are being intensely analyzed daily by experts, KOLs, and media outlets alike. But shockingly, the ones closest to the truth are not Wall Street strategists or television commentators—but anonymous users making judgments in on-chain prediction markets.
Bloomberg and The Economist have both reported that key turning points—from US non-farm payroll revisions to Bitcoin’s post-halving rally rhythm and Federal Reserve interest rate pivots—were first foreseen by blockchain-based prediction markets.
This is no coincidence—it is the triumph of mechanism.
Experts may be limited by bias, and polls can be swayed by emotion. But prediction markets have one fundamental difference: expressing an opinion comes with accountability. As behavioral economist Cass Sunstein put it, “When you have to bear the cost of your judgment, you become more rational.” That is the core logic of prediction markets: not merely expressing opinions, but standing behind them. 
Odd.Fun: An On-Chain Prediction Platform That Monetizes Judgment
Odd.Fun is built on this logic as a full-chain prediction platform. It’s not gambling, nor voting—it’s a new form of “cognitive economy.” On Odd.Fun, anyone can launch yes/no prediction topics related to real-world global issues—politics, economics, finance, technology, society—and open them to worldwide participation and judgment.
✅ Open Market Mechanism: Users who pass KYC verification can create prediction markets, with topic quality maintained by both the platform and the community.
✅ Transparent Reward System:
For each prediction market, 3% of the losing side’s principal is collected as a fee, distributed as follows:
– 70% returned to the topic creator to encourage high-quality content;
– 20% used for referral commissions (three-level model: 12% / 5% / 3%);
– 10% supports platform operations and security maintenance.
All processes are driven by smart contracts—fully on-chain, trustless, transparent, and tamper-proof.
Prediction Markets ≠ Gambling – They Are a Wisdom Aggregation Mechanism
Unlike the traditional “one person, one vote” model, prediction markets resemble “cognitive intensity voting”—the stronger your insights, the more accurate your predictions, and the earlier you participate, the greater your returns. It’s an intelligent economy powered by collective cognition.
On Odd.Fun, users are not just participants but also producers and verifiers of information. Their judgments form “prediction profiles”: win rates, profit-loss ratios, prediction yield… Every choice is a measurable test of cognitive accuracy. These profiles are aggregated into “Top Forecasters Leaderboards,” providing high-quality data support for finance research, policy analysis, and trend modeling—ensuring that reliable predictors are seen, utilized, and rewarded.
Data Prophecy × Economic Incentives = A Sustainable Cognitive Engine
A successful prediction market relies not only on the ability to forecast but also on maintaining active, informed participation.
To that end, Odd.Fun has designed two foundational systems:
1. Effective Incentive Mechanism: A multi-layered reward structure combining dynamic bonus adjustment, periodic liquidity rewards, and topic creation incentives—forming a positive feedback loop of “buzz → participation → output → reward.”
2. Accuracy Safeguard Mechanism: To counter herd behavior and manipulation, Odd.Fun leverages an on-chain identity reputation system and a weighted model based on historical performance to amplify the influence of experienced users. It will also introduce an “on-chain intelligence provider” program, inviting experts to contribute analysis and enrich data inputs.
In an era of media polarization, institutional failures, and expert misjudgments, we urgently need a more truthful, transparent, and trust-based cognitive mechanism. Prediction markets are not a futuristic fantasy—they are already quietly functioning in the real world. You just may not have joined them yet. They are not betting platforms but bridges connecting “public insight” with “real-world outcomes,” making judgment a quantifiable and rewardable asset. Through incentivized crowd wisdom, they enable more data-driven, cognitively deep decision-making.
Odd.Fun aspires to be the builder of this bridge—making genuine cognitive participation a new norm in the Web3 era.
